The Gulf region is under fire, with US allies bearing the brunt of Iran's attacks. This escalating conflict has sent shockwaves through the area, leaving many questioning how it will all end.
Imagine the serene skies above Abu Dhabi, suddenly interrupted by incoming ballistic missiles, a stark contrast to the peaceful villas and lush gardens below. These are not commercial flights, but rather a display of Iran's military might, targeting its neighbor across the Gulf.
As of Sunday, the UAE's defense ministry reported dealing with an alarming number of attacks: 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and a staggering 541 Iranian drones. Bahrain, too, has not been spared, with a friend reporting a sleepless night filled with explosions and sirens, a stark reminder of the conflict's reach.
This conflict is not just about military targets; it's a direct assault on civilian life. Luxury hotels, shopping malls, and modern airport terminals are now under threat, caught in the crossfire as gaps emerge in the air defenses of Arab states in the Gulf. These structures, once symbols of prosperity, were never designed to withstand such attacks.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, denies targeting its neighbors, claiming instead that they are targeting US presence in the region. He shifts the blame, suggesting that Gulf countries should direct their grievances to the decision-makers of this war.
Some damage to civilian infrastructure is accidental, a result of debris from intercepted missiles. However, the repeated attacks on airports in Bahrain and the UAE suggest a deliberate strategy, going beyond mere coincidence.
Iran has long made its position clear: it will retaliate against any country it deems complicit in an attack. The Gulf states, despite their efforts to distance themselves from the US-Israeli attack, have found themselves punished for their long-standing military partnership with Washington.
Before the Islamic Revolution, Iran was known as the "policeman of the Gulf." Since then, it has consistently tried to reclaim this role, offering to "take charge of security" in the Persian Gulf, a name contested by Arabs who call it the Arabian Gulf.
Iranian leaders have unsuccessfully attempted to persuade Gulf Arab states to expel the US Navy and accept Iran as their guardian. For the conservative, dynastic monarchies in the Gulf, the revolutionary zeal of the Islamic Republic is a red line that has been crossed.
It's hard to imagine a return to normal relations with the current Iranian leadership, especially if it survives this war. Saudi Arabia and Oman, with their long history of hosting US and Western military forces, have so far escaped relatively unscathed compared to the other four Gulf Arab states.
Oman, which maintains good relations with the Islamic Republic and was mediating nuclear talks between the US and Iran, suffered a drone strike on its commercial port of Duqm. The Saudi capital, Riyadh, also appears to have been targeted, prompting a strong statement of condemnation from the Saudi government.
This is not Iran's first attack on its Arab neighbors, but the scale is unprecedented. In 2019, an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq launched a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's petrochemical facilities, temporarily disrupting half of its daily export capacity. Last June, Iran fired ballistic missiles at the al-Udaid airbase in Qatar, seen as a symbolic response to America's air raid on Iran's nuclear sites.
Bahrain, with its large Shia population, has long accused Iran of funding and arming insurgents. However, the current situation dwarfs these past tensions.
How will this conflict resolve? For President Trump, Israel, and many governments in the Middle East, the ideal outcome is a swift end to the Islamic Republic's regime, followed by a smooth transition to democracy and normalized relations with Iran.
But this is far from guaranteed. A race is underway as the US and Israel attempt to destroy Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones before they can fire more. The IRGC, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, faces a dilemma: surge an attack on a major target like a US warship, or conserve their arsenal, hoping to outlast President Trump's patience.
Iran knows its adversaries are also constrained by a finite number of air defenses. If these defenses run out before Iran's missiles, drones, and launchers, life in the Gulf could become even more perilous.
The balance of power heavily favors the US and Israel, two of the world's most advanced military powers. With two US carrier strike groups in the region and over 200 warplanes, Iran, under sanctions, has no air force to match. Both the US and Israel enjoy complete air superiority.
Yet, Tehran still has advantages. The regime, despite its weaknesses and unpopularity, only needs to survive to claim victory. The Islamic Republic, with its cult of martyrdom, can endure more pain than the US, and the longer this conflict persists, the more President Trump will seek an exit strategy.
Will the US and Iran return to talks? If the Iranian regime collapses, talks may not be necessary. But if the regime endures, Washington's demands will resurface: a curb on Iran's nuclear program, an end to its ballistic missile program, and an end to its support for proxy militias.
Oman reports real progress in Geneva talks last month on the nuclear issue. However, Iran refused to discuss the other two demands, leading Trump to express dissatisfaction with the talks' progress.
Backchannel contacts could lead to a ceasefire and a return to talks. But if both sides remain entrenched in their positions, military action may resume. This conflict is far from over, and its outcome remains uncertain.
