In the thrilling landscape of the NFL Playoffs, excitement reaches new heights during Wild Card Weekend. This Saturday, a highly anticipated clash unfolds as the Green Bay Packers travel to Soldier Field to face off against their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears. With the Packers favored by 2.5 points and the total score projected at 46.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, fans have much to look forward to.
As we delve into the specifics, let's focus on the standout player—Josh Jacobs. Despite facing a challenging season marked by recurring injuries, Jacobs has still managed to leave a significant mark when he’s on the field. With a current average of 4.0 yards per carry, his effectiveness might not be at an all-time high, yet over the course of 15 games, he has accumulated an impressive 929 rushing yards and found the end zone 13 times. His tenacity as a power runner wears down opposing defenses, making him a key asset for a Packers offense that leans heavily on the rushing game, ranking fifth in terms of rush play percentage. Although he isn’t the primary target in the passing game, Jacobs has still caught 36 passes for 282 yards and one touchdown, bringing his total scrimmage yards for the season to an impressive 1,211 along with 14 touchdowns.
Looking ahead to the matchup against the Bears, there are good reasons to believe that Jacobs could indeed return to form. The Bears' defense has been struggling, currently sitting at 27th in rushing yards allowed and 24th in defensive expected points added (EPA) per rush, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per carry—the third-highest in the league.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Jacobs’ prop bets are particularly noteworthy: he is set at an over/under of 18.5 rushing attempts, 81.5 rushing yards, 1.5 receptions, and 15.5 receiving yards. Notably, his odds of -150 to score a touchdown at any time are the lowest among players in this matchup.
One prop bet that stands out for Jacobs this Saturday is the over on his rushing attempts. Historically, Jacobs has played the role of a workhorse back, boasting significant usage last season. In playoff scenarios, teams typically increase reliance on their top performers, and various factors suggest that Jacobs could see increased touches. Given that the Bears' offensive unit averages 25.9 points per game and 369.2 yards—ranking them among the top-10 offenses by several metrics—it's likely that the Packers will aim to control the clock to limit their opponents' opportunities.
Considering these dynamics, it would not be surprising if Jacobs sees 20 or more carries as the Packers look to establish their ground game in cold weather conditions, thereby exhausting the Bears’ defense and restricting their offensive playmakers. In their first encounter this season, Jacobs recorded 20 rush attempts in Week 14, although his number dropped to just 12 in their Week 16 rematch. Nonetheless, the current conditions present a prime opportunity for Jacobs to excel, positioning him well for substantial rushing opportunities. Therefore, taking the over on his rush attempts seems to be the optimal choice.
Best Bet: Josh Jacobs over 18.5 rush attempts (-110). Click the odds of this bet to tail!
