Is Toy Story 5 the Top-Grossing Movie of 2026? Early Data Suggests So
With the end of 2025 in sight, Hollywood is gearing up for a potentially blockbuster 2026. The year promises a packed calendar of potential blockbusters, with major franchises like Star Wars, Toy Story, and Spider-Man returning to theaters. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey and Steven Spielberg's return to big-budget sci-fi are already generating buzz. Greta Gerwig's Narnia will play in IMAX screens over Thanksgiving, and Dune: Part 3 and Avengers: Doomsday will release on the same day in December.
However, the question remains: how big can a post-COVID year really be? While 2025 hasn't been the box office savior many hoped for, there's reason to be optimistic about 2026. Early tracking data from Greenlight Analytics' TheQuorum suggests that Toy Story 5 could be the biggest movie of the year.
TheQuorum's surveys of 2000 people reveal that Toy Story 5 has a 59% interest score, far surpassing the average of 40% for an animation/family film at this stage. Its 56% awareness score is more than double the average, putting it fifth overall and just above Anaconda, which releases in just two weeks. Disney's minimal promotion has already positioned it as a strong contender, outpacing The Mandalorian & Grogu (30%), The Odyssey (33%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (43%), and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (45%) in this category.
What's even more impressive is its 51% theater score, the highest of all 72 movies surveyed. This indicates a strong preference for seeing Toy Story 5 in theaters, which bodes well for its potential box office success. Avatar: Fire & Ash, which is expected to earn $2 billion worldwide, has a slightly lower 49% theater score.
While this data doesn't guarantee Toy Story 5 will gross over $2 billion, it suggests that Pixar's upcoming sequel is a juggernaut. The film faces competition from Spielberg's new sci-fi film, Supergirl, and Minions 3, but early tracking data positions Toy Story 5 as the one to watch.
Toy Story 3 and 4 both crossed the $1 billion mark, and Toy Story 5 is expected to follow suit. However, some argue that Inside Out 2's $1.6 billion worldwide gross could be a more accurate comparison. If Toy Story 5 surpasses this record, it could become the new all-time record holder for an American animated film, with Woody and Buzz potentially holding down the top spot for this impressive year.
Release Date: June 19, 2026
Director: Andrew Stanton
Writers: Andrew Stanton
Voice Cast:
- Woody: Tim Allen
- Buzz Lightyear: Joan Cusack
- Jessie: (voice)
- Combat Carl: (voice)
